For example, it's pretty likely that there will be a run of 3 numbers chosen (though there's no predicting where that run will occur). There can still be groupings, but identifying what is and isn't a group depends on how you visualize the data. It's easy to see that just picking the numbers 1-20 means you're betting on an extremely low probability outcome, but that outcome is just as improbable as any other set of 20 numbers! The observation that clumping tends to occur is just a statement that there are more choices that include some clumping than ones that don't. You cannot place a bet on "the picked numbers will contain some clumping." You have to choose one specific clumping (or lack thereof) and bet on that. (x%3B%20%CE%BC)%20%3D,(%CE%BCx)%20%2F%20xĪm I correct that there is mathematically no possible way for your choice of numbers to influence your average chance of winning at Keno (either in a single game or a series of games)? Here is a snippet with some of the sources provided to me by the person who told me about this: Meanwhile if you grouped all your guesses in the top left quadrant (for example) it would have a higher chance of coming into actuality over the series of games.īut if every number drawn is random then wouldn't it mean that every combination of numbers is necessarily just as probable? And if this is true for an individual game then it logically follows that the amount of games played is a non-factor?Īdditionally, isn't the main reason these observed groupings can exist just a result of the visual representation of the game as a board with two axis? If you instead rendered the Keno numbers 1-80 as a single row you would lose the groupings anyway.Īm I correct that there is mathematically no possible way for your choice of numbers to influence your average chance of winning at Keno (either in a single game or a series of games)? That Poisson clumping is relevant only as an observation of the resulting perceived clumping but not to game theory? If not, why? I was recently told that a scientifically supported strategy in Keno is to 'group' your numbers as this will increase your average winnings over the series due to Poisson clumping.Īn example scenario was given that if you equally distributed all 20 of your numbers on the board that you are less likely to win due to the mathematical improbability of no clumping occurring per the Poisson distribution. We make our world significant by the courage of our questions and by the depth of our answers. For more open-ended questions, try /r/AskScienceDiscussion | Sign up to be a panelist!.Looking for flair? Sign up to be a panelist!.Neuroscience, Neurology, Neurochemistry, Cognitive NeuroscienceĪsk Anything Wednesday - Engineering, Mathematics, Computer scienceĪskScience AMA Series: Brain Cell AtlasesĪsk Anything Wednesday - Biology, Chemistry, Neuroscience, Medicine, PsychologyĪskScience AMA Series: Addiction Treatment and CannabisĪsk Anything Wednesday - Economics, Political Science, Linguistics, AnthropologyĪsk Anything Wednesday - Physics, Astronomy, Earth and Planetary Science ![]() Medicine, Oncology, Dentistry, Physiology, Epidemiology, Infectious Disease, Pharmacy, Human Body Psychology, Cognitive Psychology, Developmental Psychology, Abnormal, Social Psychology Social Science, Political Science, Economics, Archaeology, Anthropology, Linguisticsīiology, Evolution, Morphology, Ecology, Synthetic Biology, Microbiology, Cellular Biology, Molecular Biology, Paleontology Mechanical Engineering, Electrical Engineering, Structural Engineering, Computer Engineering, Aerospace EngineeringĬhemistry, Organic Chemistry, Polymers, Biochemistry Mathematics, Statistics, Number Theory, Calculus, AlgebraĪstronomy, Astrophysics, Cosmology, Planetary FormationĬomputing, Artificial Intelligence, Machine Learning, ComputabilityĮarth Science, Atmospheric Science, Oceanography, Geology Theoretical Physics, Experimental Physics, High-energy Physics, Solid-State Physics, Fluid Dynamics, Relativity, Quantum Physics, Plasma Physics /r/AskScienceDiscussion: For open-ended and hypothetical questions.FAQ: In-depth answers to many popular questions.Weekly Features: Archives of AskAnything Wednesday, FAQ Fridays, and more!.Be civil: Remember the human and follow Reddiquette.Report comments that do not meet our guidelines, including medical advice.Downvote anecdotes, speculation, and jokes.Upvote on-topic answers supported by reputable sources and scientific research.Answer questions with accurate, in-depth explanations, including peer-reviewed sources where possible.Please read our guidelines and FAQ before posting
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